PH COVID-19 cases daily to exceed 20K by early September — OCTA

The number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases daily in the country may exceed more than 20,000 by early September, independent research group OCTA

“Hindi pa naman siguro natin masasabi na aabot ng 25,000. Pero it’s very possible na hihigit 20,000 by a few thousands. I don’t have the exact number right now (We can’t say yet if it will reach 25,000, but it’s very possible it will be more than 20,000 by a few thousands),” OCTA research fellow Guido David said in an interview with DZMM TeleRadyo.

On August 28, the country recorded 19,441 new COVID-19 cases, the highest in a single day since the pandemic began in March last year.

“‘Yung pagdami ng bilang ng kaso sa National Capital Region, tumataas pa siya talaga. Hindi pa siya nag pi-peak (The increase in the number of cases in the National Capital Region is really increasing. It hasn’t peaked yet),” David said.

“First or second week of September, makikita natin ang peak. Di pa garantisado kasi ang reproduction number, bumababa siya, pero greater 1 pa rin. Ibig sabihin, tumataas pa rin ang bilang ng kaso (First or second week of September, we’ll see it peak. Although it’s not guaranteed because the reproduction number is declining but still greater than 1, which shows cases are still increasing),” he added.

David also noted that COVID-19 cases in the NCR increased by 11 percent in the past week from 24 percent the previous week.

The truth of the matter is pataas padin ang trend (the trend is still increasing) and in fact we saw a spike in the positivity yesterday,” he added.

OCTA earlier projected the country will record 20,000 new daily cases following the spread of the more transmissible Delta variant.

David, meanwhile, said that a granular lockdown would be more effective only if cases were not widespread in the cities.

The research group also earlier said that the high number of COVID-19 cases in the country may still require centralized lockdowns to prevent further transmissions of the deadly disease.

“Sa Metro Manila siguro, kung nabawasan na ang hawahan at makikita natin na naka-concentrate sa ibang local areas, mas magiging effective ang ating granular lockdown (In Metro Manila, if the transmission is decreased and is concentrated only in some local areas, granular lockdowns would be more effective),” he told DZMM.

The Inter-agency Task Force (IATF) for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases on Saturday announced that the NCR, Bataan, and Laguna will remain under the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) from Sept. 1 to 7, 2021, with the same additional restrictions.

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