‘May nanalo na?’: Historical data shows Bongbong is ‘statistically impossible’ to overtake in surveys

The UniTeam, through its official Quezon City mayoralty candidate Anakalusugan Party-list Rep. Mike Defensor, pointed to “historical data” which in his view shows that Marcos’s survey lead is insurmountable.

“It is now statistically impossible to overtake Bongbong Marcos and [Davao City Mayor] Sara Duterte in time for the May 9 elections, which is just over a month away. This shows that the message of unity that has espoused by both Marcos and Duterte has truly stricken a chord with Filipinos,” Defensor said in a statement Thursday, April 7.

This came after former senator Marcos garnered an impressive 56 percent voter preference in the latest Pulse Asia survey results. His closest rival in the race, opposition leader Vice President Leni Robredo, had a 24 percent voter preference, meaning Marcos’s lead stood at 32 percentage points.

The congressman pointed to a comparative analysis of Pulse Asia presidential survey results in past elections beginning 2004 during roughly the same period (mid to end of March).

“There has never been a survey lead like that Marcos’s in the past wherein one could say at this point, ‘May nanalo na (We already have a winner),’” said Defensor, who has close ties to the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) party. Mayor Duterte, Marcos’s running mate, sits as chairperson of Lakas-CMD.

In the case of the lady mayor, she has a 56 percent voter preference which equates to a 36-percentage point lead over fellow vice presidential candidate Senate President Vicente Sotto III (20 percent).

Figures provided by the UniTeam show that in 2004, then-incumbent President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had a 3-percentage point lead over movie actor Fernando Poe Jr. (34 percent and 31 percent, respectively) during this period.

In 2010, then-senator Benigno S. Aquino III had a 19-percentage point lead over former President Joseph Estrada (37 percent and 18 percent, respectively) at this time in the campaign.

On the other hand, 11 percentage points separated survey frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte from former senator Mar Roxas (30 percent and 19 percent, respectively) in 2016.

Defensor noted that since 2004, none of the survey frontrunners for the Palace seat up to this point experienced a reduction in their respective survey leads in the following April survey. More importantly, they all went to win in the actual polls.

“In the subsequent April surveys, Macapagal-Arroyo’s lead increased to 6 percent points, Aquino’s to 19 percentage points, and Duterte maintained his 11-percentage point lead,” Defensor, a former Cabinet official of the Arroyo administration, said.

“Based on this historical data, there is no stopping Marcos from scoring a convincing victory on May 9,” he added.

The Marcos camp said Wednesday that they plan on improving the PFP standard-bearer’s voter preference rate to 70 percent.

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